中信证券:二产需求持续修复 推荐配置经营具备稳定性且估值重新具备安全边际的水电标的等
智通财经网·2025-11-14 00:37

Core Insights - In September, electricity consumption increased by 4.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from August's growth of 5.0% [1][2] - The demand for electricity in the secondary industry continued to recover, reaching a growth rate of 5.7%, while the tertiary industry's demand remained resilient [2] - The report recommends investing in hydropower with stable operations and a safety margin in valuation, H-share leading thermal power with performance elasticity and low valuation, and H-share green power with improved subsidy expectations [1] Electricity Consumption Trends - In September, the electricity consumption growth rate was 4.5%, down from 5.0% in August, with the secondary industry's demand recovering to 5.7% [2] - The high-energy-consuming sectors showed varied electricity demand growth, with the black metal industry experiencing high growth while the non-metal industry remained flat [2] - Coastal regions benefited from exports, with a year-on-year electricity consumption growth rate of 7.2% [2] Power Generation and Investment - From January to September, new wind and solar power installations reached 61.09 million and 240.27 million kilowatts, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.2% and 49.3% [3] - In September, new thermal power installations totaled 6.81 million kilowatts, maintaining a steady production pace [3] - Power source investment from January to September was 598.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with significant growth in thermal and nuclear power investments [3] Hydropower and Utilization Rates - The average utilization hours for power generation equipment in September were 263 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [4] - Hydropower generation saw a significant increase due to improved water conditions, with utilization hours rising to 402 hours, an increase of 28.4% [4] - Wind and solar power utilization hours decreased, with wind power utilization at 127 hours (down 20.6%) and solar power at 90 hours (down 7.2%) [4]