智通财经网·2025-11-14 00:43Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the U.S. stock market is supported by mid-term elections, policy easing, ample liquidity, and a favorable fundamental outlook for 2026. Despite concerns over high valuations and potential risks from high interest rates, the market remains attractive for investment due to strong growth expectations and the increasing market share of MAG8 companies [1][10]. Macroeconomic Environment - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with the federal funds rate projected to decline to 3.25%-3.4% by the end of 2026. This is supported by a weakening job market, with 1.1 million layoffs expected in 2025, and the Fed's recent interest rate cuts [2]. - The fiscal policy, particularly the OBBB Act passed in July 2025, is anticipated to create a $3.4 trillion deficit over the next decade, providing significant tax relief for businesses and contributing to fiscal expansion [3]. Market Liquidity - Four key factors are expected to support liquidity in the U.S. stock market: the expansion of dollar-pegged stablecoins, increased corporate buybacks, a shift of funds from money market funds to equities and bonds, and a resurgence in individual investor participation [4]. Fundamental Outlook - The fundamental outlook for the U.S. stock market is bolstered by strong growth in technology and improvements in the policy environment. The S&P 500 is projected to see revenue and earnings growth of 5.2% and 6.6% in 2025, respectively, with expectations for even higher growth in 2026 [6]. AI Bubble Narrative - The narrative surrounding the potential bursting of the "AI bubble" is considered unlikely in the short term, as demand for AI technologies continues to grow, supported by advancements in chip performance and system capabilities [7]. Private Credit Market Risks - Concerns regarding the private credit market have emerged following recent bankruptcies, but the overall default rate remains moderate, and the impact on the banking sector is expected to be manageable [8]. High Interest Rate Environment - The prolonged high interest rate environment poses risks to the real economy and financial system, with potential implications for the stock market if the Federal Reserve fails to respond timely to emerging risks [9]. Stock Market Outlook - The combination of fiscal and monetary easing is expected to support the continuation of a bull market in U.S. stocks in 2026, with a focus on sectors such as technology, manufacturing, energy infrastructure, military, and financial services [10].