Iuorio: A.I. in "First Third" of Bubble Creation, Market Due for 5% Pullback

Market Performance - The market has shown a lack of positive reaction following the government reopening, indicating potential weakness despite being in a longer-term bull market [2][3][4] - The NASDAQ is currently 15% below its recent high, suggesting room for correction [4] AI Sector Insights - There is a belief that the AI sector may be in an early stage of a bubble, with signs of excessive enthusiasm reflected in stock price movements [5][6] - A potential 30% correction in AI stocks is anticipated within the next 18 months, raising questions about investor readiness for such a downturn [8][9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions are seen as data-dependent, with expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point easing in December [22][23] - Concerns about the accuracy of economic data collection methods are highlighted, suggesting the Fed may be operating with limited visibility [21][22] Consumer Sentiment and Economic Disparity - Consumer sentiment is reported to be near all-time lows, despite high stock market performance, indicating a disconnect between asset holders and the broader population [24][25] - The economic landscape is described as K-shaped, where the top 30-40% benefit from rising asset prices while the lower 60% face challenges such as increased grocery costs [26][27]