全球石油与天然气需求可能会持续增长至2050年

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050, with oil demand reaching 113 million barrels per day by 2050, a 13% increase from 2024 levels [1] - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is expected to increase by 50% by 2030 under current policy scenarios [1] - Despite significant investments in decarbonization, there has been no clear evidence of energy transition and emission reduction over the past thirty years, with economic and population growth being the main drivers of increased carbon emissions [1][3] Group 2 - Stephen D. Eule from the National Center for Energy Analysis (NCEA) describes the energy transition as an illusion rather than a quantifiable trend, suggesting that the use of oil and gas will significantly increase alongside the rise of renewable energy and battery technologies [3] - Research indicates that reducing one ton of carbon emissions through a shift to low-carbon energy results in a decrease of 12.4 tons of carbon in economic energy intensity [3] - The carbon emissions per unit of energy consumption in 2024 are only 3% lower than in 1990, making the goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 challenging [3]