Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.26%, the 10-year main contract down 0.10%, the 5-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly rose, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield increasing by 0.4 basis points to 1.8765%, the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.40 basis points to 1.8050%, and the 30-year government bond yield up by 0.45 basis points to 2.1495% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 190 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 13, resulting in a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions fell by about 10 basis points to around 1.32%, while the overnight quotes on the anonymous click (X-repo) system returned to 1.3% [2] - The central bank's flexible liquidity injections continue to stabilize the funding environment, with limited impact expected from the upcoming tax period in November [2] Fundamental Data - According to the latest financial statistics from the central bank, the cumulative increase in China's social financing scale for the first ten months reached 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - As of the end of October, the year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.5%, and M2 growth was 8.2%, both showing a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The market had anticipated a slowdown in financial total growth due to increasing base figures, leading to a muted reaction in the bond market despite weaker financial data [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market experienced weakness primarily due to strong performance in risk markets, with a lack of a clear direction amid mixed factors [4] - Future trading focus will be on the impact of new regulations regarding bond fund redemptions and whether expectations for loose monetary policy will materialize, particularly after the release of October economic data [4] - The short-term trading range for the 10-year government bond active coupon is expected to be between 1.75% and 1.82%, with the potential for monetary policy to support bond prices [4]
国债期货：股债跷跷板效应下 期债全线收跌
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-14 02:13