【异动分析】沪锡价格大幅上涨解读

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tin prices is driven by both supply and demand factors, with a notable decline in social inventory and a significant drop in Indonesian exports alleviating supply pressure [4]. Group 1: Price Movement - Since October, tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have accelerated significantly, with a rise of approximately 4.7% in the SN2512 contract as of November 10 [1]. - The weighted position of tin has increased by about 34,000 contracts, nearing levels seen in April 2025, indicating a notable rise in market activity [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand - In September, after a peak and subsequent decline, domestic tin ingot social inventory showed a significant decrease, reflecting strong purchasing intentions from downstream buyers [3]. - As of October 10, China's tin ingot social inventory was 7,784 tons, down 2,353 tons (23.2%) from 10,137 tons on September 5, indicating a continued decline post-National Day [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The Indonesian Tin Exporters Association projected a refined tin export volume of 53,000 tons for 2025, an 18% increase from the previous year's 45,000 tons, suggesting expectations of increased supply [3]. - However, actual refined tin exports from Indonesia in October were 2,643.05 tons, a 53.89% decrease year-on-year, which alleviated previous concerns about supply growth [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The combination of declining inventory and reduced overseas supply pressure is expected to support a strong short-term performance in tin prices [4].