Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the automotive sector is expected to see a strong end-of-year performance driven by seasonal demand and the reduction of purchase tax, with a focus on vehicle cycles [1] - The automotive sector has outperformed the market year-to-date as of October 31, with the parts segment showing superior performance [1] - The forecast for 2026 indicates a slight decline in domestic passenger car retail sales, while exports of new energy vehicles are expected to maintain rapid growth, stabilizing overall wholesale sales [1] Group 2 - The industry is anticipated to experience a high-to-low trend in 2025, with rapid style switching and a focus on robotic themes throughout the year [2] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue supporting total volume, although there are concerns about imbalanced funding structures [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to slow, with advancements in autonomous driving policies and self-developed technologies, though interest may be waning [2] Group 3 - In 2026, total volume may still rely on policy support, with a return to the essence of vehicle cycles and potential breakthroughs in robotics [3] - The "old-for-new" policy is likely to continue but may taper off, with expectations for optimized funding ratios for vehicle replacement [3] - The automotive market is shifting from price competition to configuration competition, with new energy and hybrid vehicle standards being upgraded, leading to intensified competition among new and updated models [3]
光大证券:年底汽车订单或再创新高 2026年投资聚焦AI+机器人