【环球财经】国际能源署预测明年石油日均过剩超400万桶

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a continued oversupply in the global oil market for the next two years, with a potential surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day by 2026, which is significantly higher than other forecasts [1] - The report highlights an imbalance in the oil market due to increased supply from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, while demand growth remains sluggish [1] - Global oil production has increased by 6.2 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year, with Saudi Arabia contributing 1.5 million barrels per day to this increase [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The IEA forecasts a supply increase of approximately 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, while demand growth is expected to be 770,000 barrels per day next year [1] - The report indicates that the demand growth forecast has been revised upward by 70,000 barrels per day due to increased demand from chemical plants [1] Inventory Levels - Global oil inventories have risen significantly, reaching nearly 8 billion barrels as of September, the highest level since July 2021, primarily due to increased storage from maritime transport [2] OPEC and Non-OPEC Contributions - OPEC and non-OPEC countries have shared the increase in oil production, with Russia contributing only 120,000 barrels per day due to sanctions and energy facility attacks [2] - OPEC's own report predicts a much lower surplus of only 20,000 barrels per day by 2026, contrasting with the IEA's more substantial surplus forecast [2]