Sugar Prices Supported by Potential of Fewer Sugar Exports from India

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant increase, with NY sugar reaching a one-week high due to short covering amid expectations of reduced sugar exports from India [2] - The global sugar supply outlook remains bearish, with Brazil's sugar production estimates being raised, contributing to lower prices [3][4] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up by 0.30 (+2.11%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 is up by 9.70 (+2.38%) [1] - Short covering in sugar futures is driven by reports that India may export less sugar than previously anticipated, with a proposed export limit of 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season [2] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - The global sugar surplus is projected to increase, with Czarnikow raising its 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up by 1.2 MMT from the previous estimate [3] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, has increased its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [4] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which may further impact global sugar prices [5] - The reduction in sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a previous forecast of 5 MMT may allow for increased sugar exports [5]