传统需求进入淡季 预计甲醇仍以震荡下探为主

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and showing weakness due to high inventory levels and weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol futures opened at 2103.00 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 2107.00 CNY and a minimum of 2061.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.09% [1]. - The overall performance of the methanol market is characterized by a weak downward trend, with institutions providing mixed outlooks on future price movements [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply - Jin Xin Futures reported an accumulation of methanol inventory at ports, with stable demand from Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, while the South China ports saw a slight decrease in inventory [1]. - Wukuang Futures noted that high port inventories are suppressing price performance, with overseas production remaining high and domestic production slightly decreasing, leading to ongoing supply pressure [1]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, with traditional demand entering a low season, contributing to a weak overall market performance [1][2]. - Donghai Futures highlighted that both inland and port inventories are increasing, with domestic supply-demand conditions deteriorating, which is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on prices [2]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The current market conditions suggest that prices may continue to decline, approaching import cost levels, although there may be some support from planned shutdowns of Iranian facilities [2]. - The expectation is for prices to remain in a downward trend, with potential for a slowdown in the rate of decline, but overall price space is limited [2].