供需面驱动利好有限 预计塑料期货窄幅整理为主

Core Viewpoint - Plastic futures experienced a slight increase, with the main contract reaching a peak of 6896.00 yuan and closing at 6865.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.09% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shanghai Zhongqi Futures indicates that plastic futures are primarily in a narrow range consolidation, supported by positive domestic macro sentiment, but pressured by a decline in international crude oil prices [2] - The Brent crude oil main contract fell by 3.81%, impacting trading sentiment for plastic futures, leading to limited price increases in the afternoon [2] - Current supply of plastic is ample due to low maintenance capacity and increased imports from North America, while downstream demand from agricultural and packaging films remains stable [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ruida Futures, recent maintenance at major petrochemical plants has limited impact on production days, with a slight increase in PE production and capacity utilization [3] - The supply pressure is expected to remain high due to new production facilities coming online, while downstream demand for agricultural films is peaking and packaging film orders are weakening [3] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that the L2601 contract will experience short-term fluctuations, with supply levels remaining high and production enterprise inventories increasing [4] Group 3: Price Pressure and Technical Analysis - Ruida Futures highlights that the L2601 contract should be monitored for pressure around the 6900 yuan mark, suggesting a cautious outlook on price increases due to limited supply-demand drivers [3] - Ningzheng Futures suggests that the L2601 contract will face resistance at the 6910 yuan level, recommending a wait-and-see approach or short-term short positions [4]