基本面支撑边际转弱 预计短期沪铅期货高位调整

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tightening supply situation, which is expected to support high lead prices in the short term due to various factors including production issues and regulatory changes in electric vehicle battery standards [1][2]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Production - As of November 13, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported lead registered warehouse receipts at 128,650 tons, with canceled receipts at 95,325 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. Total lead inventory stands at 223,975 tons, down by 1,250 tons [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported lead inventory at 25,824 tons, an increase of 1,138 tons from the previous trading day. Regional breakdown shows: Shanghai at 4,784 tons (down 197 tons), Guangdong at 4,724 tons (up 1,011 tons), Jiangsu at 4,782 tons (unchanged), Zhejiang at 1,272 tons (up 99 tons), and Tianjin at 10,262 tons (up 225 tons) [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - October's electrolytic lead production fell short of expectations, leading to a tightening supply that has pushed lead prices higher. Environmental restrictions in Hebei have caused a regional supply tightness to spread nationwide [2]. - A shortage of lead concentrate has resulted in many electrolytic lead producers operating below market expectations despite resuming production. The opening of import windows for lead and lead concentrate is expected to increase import volumes, gradually resolving raw material issues at the smelting end [2]. - The demand for lead is expected to remain stable, with short-term lead prices anticipated to maintain high levels amid these supply constraints [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Adjustments - The lead market has seen a shift from a five-day price increase to a downward adjustment, with social inventories continuing to rise. The resumption of production at refineries and the replenishment of crude lead are alleviating supply-demand mismatches, leading to a weakening of fundamental support for prices [3]. - Short-term adjustments in lead prices are expected as the market responds to these changes in inventory and production dynamics [3].