智通财经网·2025-11-14 06:21Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that the central bank's renewed mention of "cross-cycle adjustment" suggests a relatively cautious monetary policy stance, with expectations for the banking sector's relative returns to improve in Q4 2025 due to stabilizing interest margins and positive fundamental trends [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The overall monetary policy remains moderately loose, but the central bank's emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" indicates a more cautious approach to monetary policy [2]. - With a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, the necessity for significant policy stimulus has decreased, and the likelihood of major rate cuts is low [2]. Credit Growth - The report suggests that credit growth will continue to decline, with Q4 credit growth expected to remain lower than previous levels due to a larger base effect [3]. - In Q3 2025, credit growth decreased by 0.92 trillion yuan year-on-year, with corporate and household loans also showing declines [3]. Interest Margin - The report emphasizes maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to support banks' net interest margins, which are expected to stabilize [4]. - As of Q3 2025, listed banks' net interest margins have stabilized, benefiting from a significant reduction in funding costs, while asset yields have decreased [4]. Risk Management - The report highlights the need for an orderly resolution of risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, with an acceleration in mergers and restructuring expected [5]. - The establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is emphasized to enhance financial stability [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals, including specific stocks like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank [6]. - It also recommends state-owned banks with stable fundamentals and good defensive value, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China [6].