Nat-Gas Prices Turn Lower on a Mixed US Weather Forecast

Core Insights - Natural gas prices fell from an 8-month high due to a mixed weather forecast in the US, which may reduce heating demand [1] - Increased US natural gas production is a bearish factor for prices, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 1.0% to 107.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [2] - Active US natural gas rigs reached a 2-year high, indicating strong production levels [2][6] Production and Demand - US dry gas production was reported at 110.8 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.4% [3] - Lower-48 state gas demand was 86.9 bcf/day, up 6.1% year-over-year [3] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 17.8 bcf/day, a 5.1% increase week-over-week [3] Electricity Output and Inventory - US electricity output rose by 0.05% year-over-year to 73,730 GWh for the week ending November 1, supporting gas prices [4] - The EIA's upcoming report is expected to show a nat-gas inventory increase of 34 bcf, close to the five-year average [4] - As of October 31, nat-gas inventories were up 0.4% year-over-year and 4.3% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating adequate supplies [5] Rig Count and Market Trends - The number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs increased by 3 to a 2.25-year high of 128 rigs [6] - The rise in gas rigs from a 4.5-year low of 94 rigs in September 2024 suggests a recovery in drilling activity [6]