智通财经网·2025-11-14 08:05Core Viewpoint - The global forklift industry is expected to experience a structural recovery in 2025, driven by a rate-cutting cycle and technological upgrades after approximately two years of decline [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first nine months of 2025, China's cumulative forklift sales reached 1.1064 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with domestic sales at 697,400 units (+13.1%) and exports at 409,000 units (+15.5%) [3]. - The monthly domestic sales growth in September 2025 reached 29.3%, indicating a rebound in domestic manufacturing investment demand [3]. - The global forklift order inflection point has been observed, with demand entering an upward channel, showing resilience against fluctuations in downstream single-industry demand [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The integration of AI and embodied intelligence is expected to reshape the logistics industry, transitioning from mechanized operations to cognitive intelligence, enhancing the unity of "cognition" and "execution" [1][7]. - The penetration rate of unmanned forklifts was only 1.9% in 2024, but cost advantages are becoming apparent, indicating an impending industry explosion [2]. - The logistics sector is poised to be one of the first applications for embodied intelligent robots, driven by the broad application prospects and relatively limited action specifications [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - Kion Group's new forklift orders have shown a positive trend since Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17% in Q3 2025 [4]. - Toyota Industries has also seen a turnaround in new orders since Q4 2024, maintaining small positive growth throughout the year [4]. - Chinese forklift companies are increasing their overseas market share, with overseas revenue proportions for Heli, Hangcha, and Zhongli at 43%, 40%, and 52% respectively in the first half of 2025 [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The electric forklift penetration rate is accelerating, with Europe reaching 68% and China at 35%, below the global average of 43% [5]. - The long-term trend for electric forklifts is strong, with lithium battery forklifts expected to replace lead-acid batteries significantly [5]. - Chinese companies are expected to leverage their first-mover advantage in the new wave of intelligent logistics, potentially achieving a leap from catching up to surpassing competitors [7].