精炼镍库存趋势性积累 短期镍价震荡磨底

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market shows mixed performance, with nickel futures experiencing a decline amid macroeconomic pressures and stable spot prices for nickel sulfate [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has sharply decreased, with several officials signaling a hawkish stance, leading to a reduced probability of a rate cut in December [1] - The Fed's bond-buying plan in December may help alleviate dollar liquidity pressures [1] Spot Market Analysis - On November 14, the prices for nickel sulfate remained stable, with battery-grade nickel sulfate crystal price at 28,150 yuan/ton, battery-grade liquid nickel sulfate at 27,750 yuan/ton, and electroplating-grade nickel sulfate at 29,700 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [1] - The price for electroplating-grade nickel chloride was also stable at 33,500 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic and Indonesian pure nickel production capacity is still in an expansion phase, maintaining high overall nickel supply, while demand remains stable with no significant improvement expected [1] - The widening gap between supply and demand has led to a substantial increase in global nickel inventories, contributing to weaker nickel prices [1] Market Outlook - The planned reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia for next year is expected to have a limited impact on the market, with refined nickel inventories showing a trend of accumulation, leading to short-term price fluctuations [1]