11月14日金市晚评：黄金决战4150-4250关键区 警惕获利了结冲击

Core Viewpoint - The gold price remains resilient despite the easing of negative factors such as the U.S. government's resumption of trade negotiations, with current trading around $4,171.89 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.03% [1][2]. Market Analysis - The U.S. government's resumption of operations and Trump's proposed tariff exemptions have significantly reduced risk aversion, weakening the support for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. - The market's expectation of a potential interest rate cut has increased, with an 80% probability currently priced in, yet hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials continue to suppress these expectations [2][3]. - The previous concerns regarding a "government shutdown" have been alleviated, leading to a decrease in geopolitical risk demand for gold [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown strong performance, rising for four consecutive days, despite various negative factors, indicating unusual resilience [4]. - The current price range of $4,150 to $4,250 is critical, with market participants being cautious about chasing higher prices [7]. - If selling pressure emerges, gold could test support levels around $4,140 to $4,150, with a potential drop to the $4,000 mark if these levels are breached [7][8]. Future Outlook - There is a possibility of profit-taking in the coming days or weeks, which could lead to downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - If the upward momentum continues and resistance levels are broken, targets of $4,300 and $4,400 could be reached, potentially marking new historical highs for gold [8].