CBRE(US:CBRE) Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-11-14 11:59Core Insights - The commercial real estate sector in major Chinese cities is experiencing a resurgence in investment interest, particularly from state-owned and insurance capital buyers, as they actively acquire core properties in Shanghai [1] - The high inventory levels in the commercial real estate market are identified as a root cause of the industry's "involution," but a turning point is anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - Urban renewal is becoming a central focus for future urban development, shifting from quantity expansion to quality enhancement in commercial real estate [3] Investment Trends - Investment in commercial real estate is being driven by the stability and cash flow characteristics of long-term assets, with a notable increase in demand for core properties in first-tier cities [1] - The supply of new office space is expected to decline significantly, with new construction in 2024 projected to be only one-fourth of the peak levels seen in 2019 [2] - The high-standard warehouse market is showing resilience, with net absorption in the first three quarters of 2025 increasing by 62% year-on-year, reaching a historical high of 7.2 million square meters [2] Urban Renewal and Policy Changes - The upcoming five years are critical for urban renewal, with a projected increase in the office space aged 30 years or more in first-tier cities from 1.14 million square meters to over 10 million square meters by 2030 [3] - Policies are evolving to support the renewal of existing properties, including innovative mechanisms for extending land use rights and addressing the renewal of commercial and industrial land [4] - The expansion of public REITs is facilitating exit channels for existing assets, with expectations that office buildings and hotels will be included in the REITs framework during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5]