全线跳水！利空来了！美联储，降息大消息

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly changed, with the probability now falling below 50% from nearly 95% a month ago, due to cautious statements from Fed officials [2][8]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Many traders have noted that the likelihood of a rate cut in December is decreasing, which may have triggered a sell-off in the markets, leading to significant declines in European and U.S. stock indices [4]. - The market had previously fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, but recent developments have shifted sentiment dramatically [2][8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed skepticism about the necessity of a rate cut in December, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience and indicating that he has not yet made a decision regarding the upcoming monetary policy meeting [6][9]. - Other Fed officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, have also voiced concerns about the need for further rate cuts, aligning with a more hawkish stance [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Data and Uncertainty - The uncertainty in the economic outlook has increased due to the government shutdown, which interrupted the release of official data, leading to concerns among Fed officials about making decisions without complete information [8][9]. - Current inflation is around 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target, while the labor market shows signs of weakness, complicating the decision-making process for the Fed [8][9]. Group 4: Potential Outcomes for December Meeting - Analysts suggest that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may face a dilemma, with a possible compromise being a "hawkish rate cut," where the committee agrees to cut rates but signals that further cuts are unlikely [10][12]. - The return of government data releases may provide the Fed with a clearer picture of the economic situation before the December meeting, although it remains uncertain whether sufficient new data will be available [9].