Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-14 12:08Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is facing a prolonged period of overcapacity and demand slowdown, with significant price competition expected to continue, but without major fluctuations anticipated in the near term [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The current discussion around the consolidation of polysilicon production and funding is unprecedented, with slow progress and ongoing debates about regulation and capacity coordination [1][3]. - The PV industry is experiencing a unique situation of overcapacity combined with demand slowdown, leading to price pressures in the downstream market [3][4]. - Recent rumors regarding the failure of a proposed storage initiative in the PV sector were denied by industry associations and companies, reaffirming support for anti-involution policies [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends - Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that global PV capacity will be sufficient to meet demand until 2035, with an expected supply of 1.5 million tons of polysilicon by 2025 [4]. - The global PV installation is projected to reach a record high of 694 GW this year, with China leading by adding 337 GW, resulting in a component demand exceeding 400 GW [4][5]. - The domestic installation demand has been relatively flat since June, attributed to ongoing policy developments and developers' cautious approach [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Leading PV manufacturers are diversifying into energy storage, with companies like Trina Solar and JinkoSolar shifting focus to this segment [4]. - Despite the growth in overseas markets, the overall scale remains small and may not compensate for the anticipated decline in the Chinese market starting in 2026 [5][8]. - The cost of PV manufacturing in China remains significantly lower than in other regions, with a production cost of approximately $0.08/W compared to $0.5/W in the U.S. [8].