全线跳水！利空来了！美联储 降息大消息

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly changed, with the probability now falling below 50% from nearly 95% a month ago, indicating increased uncertainty in the market [2][9]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding the policy outlook, leading traders to reduce bets on a December rate cut [2]. - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari does not support the last rate cut decision and remains undecided about the best course of action for the December meeting, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience [6]. - Other officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, suggest maintaining current rates for a period to balance inflation and employment concerns, as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The declining probability of a December rate cut has triggered a sell-off in European and U.S. stock markets, with major indices experiencing significant drops [4]. - Analysts note unusual divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), complicating Chairman Powell's decision-making process [11]. Group 3: Economic Data and Uncertainty - The recent government shutdown has led to a lack of official economic data, increasing uncertainty among Fed officials about making decisions based on incomplete information [9]. - The return of government operations may allow for a more comprehensive understanding of the economic situation, although it remains uncertain if sufficient new data will be available before the December meeting [10]. Group 4: Potential Outcomes - A compromise solution for Powell could involve a "hawkish rate cut," where the committee agrees to cut rates but signals that further cuts are unlikely [12]. - Analysts believe Powell may be forced to choose between holding rates steady in December or cutting rates while indicating that the current cycle of rate cuts may be nearing its end [13].