UAMY Stock Jumps 68.4% in 3 Months: Should You Hold or Fold Now?

Core Insights - Shares of United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) have increased by 68.4% over the past three months due to significant operational transformations, including a global procurement network for antimony and increased domestic mining activities [1][2] - UAMY has secured long-term contracts worth nearly $352 million, which is a substantial increase compared to last year's revenues of only $15 million [7][8] - The company is also making early moves into tungsten, aiming to become the first domestic supplier in the U.S. as there are currently no active tungsten mines in the country [10][11] Antimony Supply and Mining Operations - Antimony is central to UAMY's growth strategy, with a reported 203% year-over-year increase in antimony revenues in Q2, driven by higher pricing and expanded ore deliveries [5][6] - UAMY has executed over 15 supply agreements across 10 countries, with material sourced from regions including Bolivia, Chad, and Mexico [6] - The company has received approximately 330 tons of antimony feedstock in Mexico, with another 295 tons en route [6] Long-term Contracts and Revenue Growth - The long-term contracts secured include a $245 million award from the Defense Logistics Agency and a $107 million commercial contract for antimony trioxide, representing a significant demand increase [7][8] - UAMY's domestic production revival has yielded 560 tons of stibnite ore in Montana, with expected grades exceeding 10% antimony [9] Challenges in the Market - UAMY faces challenges from China's dominance in the antimony market, controlling 60 times the mining capacity of other countries and 85-90% of global smelting and refining capacity [14] - Regulatory delays in Alaska and environmental objections have hindered progress in one of UAMY's promising regions, pushing timelines into 2026 [14][15] - An acquisition attempt in Australia was rejected, although UAMY remains the largest shareholder with a 10% stake valued at approximately $40 million [15] Valuation and Market Position - UAMY's shares currently trade at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 9.59X, significantly higher than the industry average of 3.73X, indicating a premium valuation [16] - Despite the positive operational developments, analysts have revised earnings per share estimates downward, reflecting potential near-term challenges [12][19] Conclusion - UAMY's strategy for 2025 focuses on aggressive expansion in ore procurement, domestic mining, and early-stage tungsten development, while navigating significant market challenges [17]