从“内卷”到“反内卷”，新能源赛道迎来新周期？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in the renewable energy sector, driven by policy support, demand recovery, and technological advancements, highlighting investment opportunities in this space [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Drivers - The renewable energy sector has seen a strong rebound since mid-2025, with significant increases in photovoltaic, lithium battery, and energy storage segments, driven by three main factors: policy support, rising demand, and technological progress [2][3][4]. - The sector experienced a 60% decline from its peak in October 2021 to April 2025, but has shown signs of bottoming out and recovery [2][3]. - The demand surge is primarily from the electric vehicle sector, with new models being launched and enhanced policies stimulating market activity [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand structure in the photovoltaic sector is gradually improving due to government policies aimed at curbing excessive competition and overcapacity [6][7]. - The energy storage market is on the brink of explosive growth, driven by both domestic and international demand, particularly in mature markets like Europe and North America [7][8]. - The lithium battery sector is transitioning from oversupply to a more balanced state, with increasing utilization rates and rising prices for certain components [8][9]. Group 3: Policy and Strategic Developments - The "anti-involution" policy aims to mitigate price wars and promote quality over quantity in the renewable energy sector, leading to a recovery in prices and profitability [10][11]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted focus towards high-quality development, emphasizing the importance of clean energy and storage systems [12][13]. - The integration of production capacities in the photovoltaic sector is being explored to eliminate outdated capacities while ensuring reasonable compensation for exiting companies [11]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - The article highlights advancements in perovskite solar technology and solid-state batteries, with expectations for commercial viability by 2030 and 2027, respectively [15][16]. - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to see small-scale production by 2027, with broader applications in various sectors by 2030 [16]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The current valuation of the renewable energy sector is considered attractive, especially compared to other high-growth sectors, providing a favorable risk-reward balance for investors [17][18]. - The sector's recovery, policy support, and technological advancements are expected to drive further valuation increases [18][19]. - Investors are advised to consider both targeted investments in specific companies and broader index-based investments to mitigate risks [21][22].