Adobe's Selloff May Be Hiding A Value Story

Core Insights - Adobe (ADBE) is beginning to appear as a value candidate, trading nearly 40% below its 12-month high and at a price-to-sales ratio significantly below its three-year average, indicating a rare reset for a premium software company [2] - The company's revenue continues to grow robustly, with Q3 2025 revenue boosted by the adoption of AI-enhanced Creative Cloud Pro, leading to AI-driven annual recurring revenue exceeding $5 billion [3] - Despite strong fundamentals, Adobe's valuation remains suppressed due to increasing AI competition impacting market share, although management has raised its FY25 revenue forecast [3] Financial Metrics - Adobe's revenue growth is reasonable at 10.7% LTM and a three-year average of 10.5% [10] - The company maintains a strong average operating margin of approximately 35.4% over the past three years, with no significant margin collapse in the last 12 months [10] - The stock trades at a modest price-to-earnings multiple of 20.3, despite positive fundamentals [10] Market Positioning - Acquiring stocks with low valuations that retain strong margins allows investors to benefit from mean reversion and revaluation potential, with lower downside risk due to high-margin businesses being able to uphold earnings [4] - The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which includes Adobe, has a history of outperforming its benchmark indices, providing superior returns with reduced risk [9] Performance Outlook - Average forward returns for stocks in the same selection strategy are 12.7% over 6 months and 25.8% over 12 months, with a win rate of over 70% for both intervals [11]