Oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, IEA says

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050, moving away from previous expectations of peak oil demand due to slower adoption of green technologies [1][2][9] - The IEA's "Current Policies Scenario" anticipates global oil demand rising to 105 million barrels per day by 2035 and 113 million barrels per day by 2050, driven mainly by petrochemical feedstocks and aviation [6][10] - The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in total car sales is expected to plateau after 2035, contributing to sustained oil demand growth into the 2030s and beyond [7][11] Demand Projections - Under the "Current Policies Scenario," global oil demand is projected to increase from 100 million barrels per day last year to 105 million barrels per day in 2035 and 113 million barrels per day in 2050 [6] - The "Stated Policies Scenario" suggests oil demand will peak at 102 million barrels per day around 2030 before gradually declining, while gas demand continues to grow into the 2030s [11] Renewable Energy Outlook - Renewables are expected to grow faster than any other major energy source, with solar photovoltaics leading the charge, particularly in China, which is projected to account for 45% to 60% of global deployment over the next decade [16] - The share of renewables in electricity generation is projected to reach nearly 55% by 2035 in the "Stated Policies Scenario," while the "Current Policies Scenario" sees slower growth due to challenges in grid integration [18] Climate Impact - The IEA warns that even with increased renewable energy adoption, energy-related emissions will not sufficiently mitigate climate risks, with global temperatures projected to rise by nearly 3°C by 2100 under the "Current Policies Scenario" [19][20] - The "Stated Policies Scenario" predicts a slightly lower temperature increase of 2.5°C, while the Net Zero Emissions scenario indicates temperatures exceeding 1.5°C for several decades before returning below that threshold by 2100 [20] Energy Security Concerns - The IEA emphasizes the importance of energy security, highlighting the need for reliable electricity grids, energy storage, and demand-side flexibility [22] - The concentration of supply in critical minerals, particularly in refining where China controls around 70% of the market for most energy-related minerals, poses significant challenges [22]