美国政府“停摆”落幕 数据断档余波仍未平

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has ended after 43 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history, but the economic impact will take time to heal [1] - The release of key economic data, including the October CPI, has been delayed, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions [2][3] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in December has decreased significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now around 50%, down from 70% [4] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The shutdown affected the Labor Statistics Bureau's ability to release timely employment and CPI data, leading to a "data blackout" period for the market [2][3] - The Federal Reserve may have to make policy decisions based on incomplete data, increasing uncertainty around its December meeting [3] - Historical patterns suggest that the recovery of economic data post-shutdown does not follow a fixed timeline, adding to the unpredictability [3] Group 2: Political Landscape - The temporary funding bill passed only extends government operations until January 30, indicating a potential for another shutdown in the near future [5] - The ongoing political polarization in the U.S. suggests that future negotiations on key issues like the debt ceiling may lead to further instability [6] - Frequent shutdowns could undermine investor confidence and the credibility of the U.S. dollar, posing long-term risks to the economy [6]