U.S. Bancorp(US:USB) Benzinga·2025-11-14 19:38Core Insights - Warren Buffett is holding more cash than ever, indicating potential caution regarding U.S. stocks reliant on consumer spending [1][25][34] - Significant increases in student loan defaults and credit delinquencies suggest a troubling trend in consumer financial health [2][4][6] Consumer Debt and Defaults - Student loan defaults among prime-credit borrowers have surged 1,753% year-over-year, with serious delinquency rates rising from 0.77% to 14.26% [3][4] - Credit card delinquencies in affluent areas increased by 80%, with 90-day delinquency rates rising from 4.1% to 7.3% [6] Employment and Income Trends - Consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of U.S. GDP, showed minimal growth in Q2 2025 despite positive employment statistics [7] - Many white-collar job changes involve pay cuts of at least 20%, impacting future consumer spending capacity [9] Wealth Distribution and Housing Market - Wealth distribution has shifted dramatically, with Americans under 40 seeing their wealth share cut in half, while those over 55 control nearly 73% of total wealth [11][12] - The average first-time homebuyer is now around 40 years old, with the income needed to afford a median-priced home at approximately $141,000 [14] Market Signals and Investment Strategy - The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey indicates tightening lending standards, which could lead to a consumer credit crunch [20][21] - Consumer discretionary stocks are lagging, suggesting a potential decline in household demand [28] - Regional banks with high consumer credit exposure may face increased stress as delinquencies rise [29] Future Outlook - Major layoffs in white-collar jobs are expected to impact credit indicators by Q1 2026, with significant implications for consumer spending [23][24] - The current market conditions suggest a disconnect between asset prices and the earning power of consumers, indicating a potential need for repricing [34]