Treasury Yields Snapshot: November 14, 2025

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.14% as of November 14, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.62% and the 30-year note at 4.74% [1] - The 10-2 spread is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions, with a lead time of 18 to 92 weeks [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date gives an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2 - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is influenced by the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), which has recently seen mortgage rates decline despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the latest rate at 6.24% [7] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]