深夜，虚假反弹，世界缺少三样东西

Core Insights - The market experienced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones index falling by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices remained relatively flat, indicating unresolved core issues in the market [2] - The rebound in U.S. stocks is seen as localized and passive, driven by technical levels rather than a genuine recovery in market confidence [2][3] Market Dynamics - Gold and Bitcoin did not recover like U.S. stocks, suggesting a lack of global market confidence, as these assets are traded continuously and should have rebounded if sentiment improved [2] - The rebound in U.S. stocks began at 23:00, coinciding with a quiet news environment, attributed to a "technical rebound" triggered by hitting important moving averages [3] Trading Behavior - The buying activity was characterized as "passive and forced," with a significant portion of trading volume (37%) related to ETFs, indicating a reactive rather than proactive market response [3] - The market sentiment reflects a temporary rebound due to prior declines rather than a renewed optimism about future prospects, highlighting a lack of active buying, liquidity, and certainty [3] Strategic Insights - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: Winter Defense, Second Line" suggests a strategic repositioning rather than a retreat, emphasizing a more discerning approach to capital allocation [4] - The report highlights a shift in trading logic, with capital preparing for a "second line" phase, indicating a more selective investment environment [5] - Insights into China's market outlook for 2026 suggest potential investment opportunities, alongside an analysis of the U.S.-China AI competition and which stocks may be more favorable for investment [5]