Down 12%, Should You Buy the Dip on Arista Networks Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Arista Networks is experiencing strong demand for its networking solutions, particularly in the AI infrastructure sector, but this demand is not translating into improved growth rates due to supply chain constraints and high expectations from investors [2][3][13]. Financial Performance - Arista's Q3 revenue increased by 27.5% year-over-year to $2.31 billion, with non-GAAP earnings rising by 25% to $0.75 per share, slightly exceeding analysts' expectations [4]. - The company's guidance for Q4 indicates a revenue midpoint of $2.35 billion, which is marginally above the consensus estimate of $2.33 billion [4]. - Despite the positive revenue growth, the market is reacting negatively due to high valuations, with Arista trading at 20 times sales and 51 times earnings [6][7]. Market Position and Growth Expectations - Arista's AI offerings are projected to generate $1.5 billion in revenue in 2025, accounting for approximately 17% of the expected total revenue of $8.85 billion [8]. - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 20% to $10.65 billion in 2026, but this represents a slowdown from the 26% growth expected in 2025 [8]. Supply Chain Challenges - The company is facing significant supply chain issues, with lead times for components ranging from 38 weeks to nearly a year, impacting its ability to fulfill orders [10]. - Arista's deferred revenue increased to $4.7 billion, up from $2.5 billion year-over-year, indicating strong demand but also highlighting the challenges in delivering products [11][12]. - Purchase commitments doubled year-over-year to $4.8 billion, reflecting the demand that the company is currently unable to meet due to component shortages [12]. Investor Sentiment - The market's reaction to Arista's latest earnings report has been negative, with shares falling over 12% since the results were released, as investors were expecting stronger guidance to justify the company's high valuation [3][7]. - Analysts do not foresee a significant acceleration in Arista's growth in the near term, which may keep the stock under pressure due to its rich valuation and ongoing supply constraints [15].