全固态电池量产前景陷分歧，专家激辩何时才是窗口期

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence in the industry regarding the commercialization timeline of solid-state batteries, with some experts predicting production by 2027-2030, while others express skepticism about achieving this timeline [1][2][3]. Group 1: Expert Opinions - Professor Ai Xinping from Wuhan University expresses skepticism about the optimistic predictions for solid-state battery mass production, suggesting it may be later than 2027 [1]. - Xu Xiaoxiong from Southern University of Science and Technology believes that mass production could start around 2028, indicating a more optimistic outlook [1]. - Zhu Xingbao, Chief Scientist at Guoxuan High-Tech, argues that the current technological challenges make commercial viability before 2030 unlikely [2]. Group 2: Industry Developments - Changan Automobile's Vice President, Deng Chenghao, states that they expect to demonstrate solid-state battery applications in vehicles by 2027, with small-scale production following in 2030 [3]. - Domestic companies generally plan for small-batch production of solid-state batteries around 2027, with large-scale production anticipated post-2030 [2]. Group 3: Technical Challenges - Zhu Xingbao highlights significant industrialization bottlenecks, including low yield rates and high production costs, particularly for the sulfide and halide mixed-use routes [2]. - Zhang Jiujun, an academician, emphasizes that while solid-state batteries theoretically offer higher safety and energy density, these claims have yet to be substantiated [5]. - Ren Dongsheng from Tsinghua University acknowledges the challenges in achieving absolute safety for high-energy-density solid-state batteries, despite their potential advantages [6]. Group 4: Market Performance - Solid-state battery concept stocks have seen a significant rise, with the solid-state battery index increasing by 19.55% in the last 20 days and over 75% year-to-date as of November 14 [1].