磷酸铁锂市场“量价齐升”，头部企业订单已排至明年

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is experiencing a strong recovery in Q3 2025, driven by surging demand in the downstream power and energy storage markets, leading to high operational capacity among leading companies [1] - The industry faced challenges over the past two years due to rapid capacity expansion, falling raw material prices, and intensified competition, resulting in significant price drops and widespread losses [1] - Since August 2023, the situation has reversed, with explosive growth in downstream demand and effective matching of supply capabilities [1] Industry Performance - From January to October 2025, the installation volume of LFP batteries in China increased by nearly 60% year-on-year, accounting for 81.3% of the total installation volume, solidifying its dominant position [1] - The energy storage market has also become a significant growth driver, with lithium battery shipments exceeding 30% of last year's total in the first three quarters of 2025, showing rapid year-on-year growth [1] Price and Production Trends - In October 2025, China's LFP production reached 390,000 tons, marking a significant year-on-year increase, with market prices rising by 7% to approximately 37,000 yuan per ton [2] - The high demand in the electric vehicle sector highlights the cost and safety advantages of LFP batteries, while the energy storage market benefits from the increasing adoption of renewable energy [2] Structural Changes and Profitability - The current industry recovery is characterized by profound technological iterations and structural optimizations, with high-pressure, high-density LFP products becoming the market focus due to their superior performance and high technical barriers [2] - The processing cost of high-end products is 1,000 to 3,000 yuan per ton higher than that of standard products, enhancing their bargaining power and leading to a market situation of "oversupply in low-end, tight supply in high-end" [2] Company Performance - Leading companies are leveraging technological advantages and economies of scale to recover from losses, with Hunan YN's net profit surging 235% year-on-year to 340 million yuan in Q3 [4] - Other companies like Wanrun New Energy and Longpan Technology have also significantly reduced losses through cost-cutting and improved capacity utilization [4] - Companies are optimistic about future prospects, with expectations of narrowing losses and achieving profitability by mid-2026 as high-end capacity is gradually released and low-end inefficient capacity is phased out [4]