What’s Driving Bitcoin’s Dip Below $100,000?

Core Insights - Bitcoin's bullish outlook is deteriorating as market participants adopt a risk-off stance, with Bitcoin dropping below $99,000 after a nearly 4% decline from its intraday high of $103,690 [1][2] Market Sentiment - The Nasdaq is down around 2%, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, as investors react to the U.S. government reopening after its longest shutdown [2] - The funding bill provides only a short-term reprieve, leading investors to focus on the negative impacts already incurred, including weeks of missing economic data and a damaged federal statistical system [2] Bitcoin Supply Dynamics - There is an accelerated distribution from Bitcoin's long-term holders, with a significant increase in selling pressure as these investors sold approximately 815,000 BTC over the past month, the highest level since January 2024 [3][4] - The 30-day change in supply held by long-term holders is sharply declining, indicating a trend of increased selling among these investors [3] Demand Factors - Weakened spot demand is evident due to net spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund outflows and reduced U.S. buying pressure, as indicated by a negative Coinbase premium [4] - The absence of significant bid support on the buy side is notable, contributing to the steady decline in Bitcoin prices [5] Market Predictions - Users on the prediction market Myriad have reduced the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $115,000 before hitting $85,000, assigning a 56% chance down from 68% [5]