Is the Crypto Bull Market About to Start?

Core Viewpoint - A new narrative in the crypto sector suggests that the real bull market has yet to begin, particularly following the recent crypto flash crash on October 10, which has resonated with investors eager to recover losses [1]. Market Cycle Theory - Many crypto investors adhere to a belief in a four-year market cycle centered around Bitcoin, with the halving date marking the midpoint of this cycle. The theory posits that a new cycle begins two years prior to the halving, typically during a bear market year [3][4]. - The established pattern includes a year-long bear market, followed by a year of recovery leading to the halving, another year of growth, and a final year characterized by speculative excess, culminating in a crash and the start of a new cycle [4]. Historical Performance - Bitcoin's price dropped to approximately $15,500 during the FTX collapse in November 2022, and has since risen to around $102,000, reflecting a significant increase as predicted by the cycle theory. Similarly, Ethereum fell to about $880 in mid-June 2022 and is now near $3,450, while Solana dropped to about $8 in late 2022 and currently trades at $153. This pattern is evident across many major cryptocurrencies [6]. Controversial Predictions - Some influential crypto investors are advocating for an upcoming bull run, a thesis that challenges the widely accepted beliefs regarding crypto market cycles. Despite the controversy, there are various reasons to believe that further growth is on the horizon [7].