商用车迎来新能源化拐点：重卡突围

Core Insights - The focus of the new energy transition in the automotive sector is shifting from passenger vehicles to commercial vehicles, with significant growth in sales and market penetration for new energy commercial vehicles [2][4][6]. Sales Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 10.93 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%. Among these, new energy passenger vehicles sold 10.28 million units (up 24%), while new energy commercial vehicles sold 649,000 units (up 60.2%) [2]. - In October 2025 alone, new energy passenger vehicle sales were 1.377 million units (up 10.3%), while new energy commercial vehicle sales were 82,000 units (up 52.4%), with a penetration rate of 30.9% for new energy commercial vehicles [2][3]. Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has remained above 30% for two consecutive months, indicating a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven growth [3]. - The China International Commercial Vehicle Exhibition (2025) highlighted new energy models as the main focus, with a ratio of 2:1 between new energy and fuel vehicles [4]. Company Strategies - BYD, while a leader in new energy passenger vehicles, is entering the commercial vehicle sector with a range of new energy products, including light trucks and heavy-duty trucks [4]. - Dongfeng Motor Corporation aims for a new energy penetration rate of over 60% for light commercial vehicles by 2030, showcasing its new brand and product strategies at the exhibition [4]. - CIMC Vehicles introduced the "EVRT ecosystem" concept, emphasizing a collaborative approach to developing a comprehensive ecosystem for electric vehicles [5]. Industry Outlook - The new energy transition in commercial vehicles is seen as a precursor to a broader scale-up and globalization of the industry, with significant changes in the commercial vehicle ecosystem [6]. - The growth of new energy commercial vehicles is expected to continue, driven by technological advancements and increasing market demand [9]. Heavy-Duty Truck Segment - The penetration rate for new energy heavy-duty trucks has significantly increased, with sales figures showing a growth trajectory from 34,000 units in 2023 to 137,000 units in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.6%, 140.1%, and 184.1% respectively [10]. - The economic advantages of electric heavy-duty trucks, particularly in total cost of ownership (TCO), are becoming more apparent as battery costs decrease and vehicle efficiency improves [11]. Challenges and Future Prospects - Despite the positive trends, the new energy heavy-duty truck sector faces challenges such as battery capacity limitations and high costs, which need to be addressed for further market penetration [12]. - Industry leaders emphasize the need for a comprehensive ecosystem to support the transition to electric heavy-duty trucks, moving beyond mere product development to a holistic approach [12].