前10月新房卖了6.9万亿元，这些城市房价仍在涨⋯⋯

Core Insights - The national real estate market is experiencing a decline in both investment and sales, with a 14.7% year-on-year decrease in development investment and a 6.8% drop in new residential sales area from January to October 2025 [2][3] - In October, the average selling prices of new residential properties in 70 major cities showed a decline both month-on-month and year-on-year, although six cities, including Shanghai and Hangzhou, saw a month-on-month price increase [4][7] - The market is characterized by a stable demand in first-tier cities, while second and third-tier cities face downward pressure on prices due to high inventory levels [2][3][11] Investment and Sales Data - From January to October 2025, real estate development investment totaled 73,563 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.7% year-on-year; new residential sales area was 71,982 million square meters, down 6.8%; and sales revenue was 69,017 billion yuan, down 9.6% [2] - In October, new residential prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai increasing by 0.3% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.1%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [4][10] Price Trends - Year-on-year, Shanghai's new residential prices rose by 5.7%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 2.0%, 4.2%, and 2.6% respectively [4][7] - The second-tier cities saw an average year-on-year price drop of 2.0%, with the decline narrowing slightly, while third-tier cities maintained a consistent drop of 3.4% [4][10] Market Dynamics - The demand for improved housing in first-tier cities remains stable, while second-tier cities show internal differentiation and third-tier cities are under overall pressure [2][3] - The market is expected to continue showing characteristics of "stable volume, weak prices, and ongoing differentiation" in November and December, driven by policy support and year-end performance targets from real estate companies [3][11] Secondary Market Insights - In October, second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, with Beijing experiencing a 1.1% decline [8][11] - The second-hand housing market is seeing a shift, with a significant portion of new home seekers also considering second-hand properties, indicating a 37% diversion in third and fourth-tier cities [11] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for boosting sales and enhancing market confidence, with ongoing efforts to reduce inventory and stimulate housing consumption [7][11]