Crude Prices Climb on Geopolitical Risks from Russia and Iran

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a rally, recovering from a previous sell-off, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [2][3][4] Group 1: Price Movements - December WTI crude oil closed up by $1.40 (+2.39%) and December RBOB gasoline closed up by $0.0519 (+2.65%) [1] - Crude prices fell to a three-week low earlier in the week due to OPEC's revised estimates indicating a surplus in the global oil market [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ukraine's drone and missile attacks on Russian oil export facilities have raised concerns about global oil supplies, supporting higher crude prices [2][4] - The Iranian seizure of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman has further heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, contributing to the increase in crude prices [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Ukraine's attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries, significantly reducing Russia's refining capacity by 13% to 20% and curbing production by up to 1.1 million bpd [4] - Russian crude exports have decreased to 3.45 million bpd, the lowest in two months, due to ongoing attacks and new sanctions from the US and EU [4] Group 4: Demand Factors - Despite bearish signals from Saudi Arabia lowering crude prices for Asia, demand from China remains strong, with crude imports rising by 3.1% year-on-year to 471 million metric tons [6]