美国“K形”经济下消费多靠富人，股市会成经济“阿喀琉斯之踵”吗？

Economic Disparity - The wage growth for the lowest 25% of income earners in the U.S. has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a decade, indicating a significant economic disparity known as the "K-shaped economy" [1] - The top 10% of income earners contribute nearly half of total U.S. consumption, up from 44.6% in 2019, highlighting the increasing income inequality and consumption structure divergence [4] - Consumer confidence among low-income Americans is significantly lower than that of high-income groups, contrasting with 2022 when market downturns affected both groups similarly [4] Corporate Performance - Companies like Coca-Cola and McDonald's have reported noticeable differences in consumer behavior across income levels, with low-income consumers facing pressure and reducing spending, while high-income consumers continue to show strong spending growth [5] - Ford has indicated that its profits are primarily derived from high-end models, reflecting the purchasing power of wealthier consumers [5] Stock Market Impact - The stock market has created a significant wealth effect for the affluent, with the S&P 500 index rising 89% and the Nasdaq index rising 93% over the past five years, benefiting the wealthiest 20% of households who hold nearly 93% of stocks [6] - The potential for a downturn in the stock market, particularly if the "AI bubble" bursts, could lead to a negative wealth effect, impacting consumer spending and possibly dragging the economy into recession [6][7]