中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇：遏制地方政府新增隐性债务 债务信息要透明，尽可能降低利息成本

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy and enhancing fiscal sustainability, marking a shift from the previous plan's focus on establishing a modern fiscal and tax system [1] Group 1: Central-Local Fiscal Relations - The plan suggests strengthening central authority and increasing the central government's fiscal expenditure ratio while enhancing local fiscal autonomy, especially as reliance on land finance decreases [2][3] - Central government transfer payments to local governments have exceeded 10 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, indicating a commitment to increasing local fiscal capacity [2] - The central fiscal expenditure ratio is currently below 15%, which is lower than that of major countries, highlighting the need for reform to better align responsibilities and resources between central and local governments [3] Group 2: Debt Management - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for government debt management is crucial, with a focus on addressing existing hidden debts and preventing new ones [4] - Transparency in local government debt information is essential, and debt management should consider sustainability and market conditions to minimize financing costs [4] - The government aims to optimize debt structure and scale, ensuring that debt management aligns with high-quality development goals [4] Group 3: Tax System Reform - The plan calls for deepening tax system reforms to ensure that tax obligations align with the capacity of microeconomic entities, addressing discrepancies in tax burdens [6][7] - The macro tax burden has been decreasing since 2017, with projections indicating that tax revenue will account for less than 13% of GDP by 2024, which may not be sustainable given the fiscal pressures [6] - Tax incentives should be rationalized to avoid market distortions and ensure fair competition, while direct tax systems need to be improved to promote social equity [7] Group 4: Zero-Based Budgeting Reform - The introduction of zero-based budgeting is seen as a critical reform to break the rigid expenditure patterns and improve the efficiency of fiscal resources [8][9] - Challenges in zero-based budgeting include reconciling legal spending requirements with the need for more efficient budget allocations [8][9] - Successful implementation of zero-based budgeting has been observed in various regions, enhancing fiscal management and resource allocation [9] Group 5: Proactive Fiscal Policy - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand effective demand, support technological self-reliance, and promote rural modernization and high-quality employment [11] - The policy will also address demographic changes and focus on risk prevention in key areas to create a conducive environment for fiscal policy implementation [11] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a foundational period for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, necessitating strategic actions to overcome challenges and leverage opportunities [10][11]