“十五五”谋局 中国城镇化下一个五年走向何方？

Core Insights - China's urbanization is transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency rather than merely expanding size [1][7][20] Urbanization Achievements - Over the past 46 years, China's urbanization rate has increased from 17.9% to 67%, with the urban population rising from 172 million to 940 million [1] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the urbanization rate is projected to rise from 63.9% in 2020 to 67% by 2024, with over 170 million rural residents moving to urban areas [4] Economic Transition - The focus of China's economic development is shifting from supply-side to demand-side strategies, particularly during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, to address insufficient demand [2][3] - New urbanization is seen as a crucial driver for economic growth, aiming to enhance domestic demand and stabilize GDP growth [3] Quality of Urbanization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to balance speed and quality in urbanization, with an expected urbanization growth rate of around 0.7 percentage points [7] - Key tasks include promoting the urbanization of agricultural migrants and ensuring equal access to public services [7][12] Urban Structure and Coordination - The development of urban clusters and metropolitan areas is essential for enhancing economic growth and regional coordination [8][12] - There is a need to address the "polarization" issue, where large cities attract resources at the expense of smaller cities [12][14] Rural Integration - The integration of urban and rural areas is a strategic priority, with a focus on promoting rural revitalization and ensuring a balanced flow of resources [15][16] - Recent trends show a shift towards local labor migration, with a decrease in the proportion of migrant workers traveling long distances [16][18] Infrastructure and Public Services - Improving infrastructure and public services in rural areas is critical for supporting urbanization and enhancing the quality of life for residents [19] - The government is encouraged to utilize financial tools, such as issuing special bonds for new urbanization, to alleviate local fiscal pressures and support infrastructure development [18][19]