Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets faced significant declines, termed "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] Group 1: Middle East Market Performance - The Egyptian stock market rose over 2.5%, reaching a historical closing high, while Saudi and Qatari indices fell by 1%, indicating a stark performance divergence [2] - On November 16, the Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares dropping 1.08% to 25.58 Saudi Riyals [3] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stock ETF listed in Saudi Arabia fell by 0.63% to 12.54 Saudi Riyals, while the Egyptian EGX 30 index surged 2.54% to 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous historical high of 40,821.96 points [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December fell below 50%, now at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate increased to 55.6% [5] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed will have access to complete data on employment, inflation, retail sales, and GDP before the December FOMC meeting, with key focus on the employment reports for October and November [5] - A month ago, market expectations for a rate cut were as high as 95%, but uncertainty has risen due to the government shutdown affecting data releases [6] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - External factors are expected to influence the A-share market, with short-term liquidity likely remaining loose, but overseas rate cut expectations declining [7] - The market is in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI computing and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [7] - If new policies are introduced or if there are signs of recovery in inflation and economic data, related sectors may see an influx of capital [7]
美联储 降息预期生变！
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-11-16 15:30