美联储，降息预期生变！

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets faced a significant downturn, referred to as "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] Group 1: Middle East Market Performance - The Egyptian stock market surged over 2.5%, reaching a historical closing high, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar indices fell by 1% [1] - The Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares dropping 1.08% to 25.58 Saudi Riyals [2] - The EGX30 index in Egypt rose 2.54% to 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous historical high of 40,821.96 points [3] - The Qatari index fell 1.01%, marking three consecutive days of decline, closing at 10,846.84 points [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December dropped below 50%, now at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate increased to 55.6% [4] - Predictions indicate that the Fed may not cut rates in December, contrasting with a month ago when the market expected a 95% chance of a cut [5] - Concerns have risen among Fed officials regarding decision-making amid data uncertainty due to the government shutdown, with labor market indicators showing weakness [5] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Short-term liquidity in the A-share market is expected to remain loose, with a potential slowdown in capital inflow due to decreased overseas rate cut expectations [6] - The market is currently in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI computing and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [6] - If new policies are introduced or if economic data shows signs of recovery, certain sectors may attract capital inflow [6]