意向订单“扎堆”的eVTOL 商业化运营还需时间和耐心

Core Viewpoint - The low-altitude economy, particularly the electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL), is emerging as a highly promising industry, with significant interest and investment, although challenges remain regarding regulatory approvals and infrastructure development [1][2][10]. Industry Overview - eVTOL is recognized as a key innovation in the low-altitude economy, with major manufacturers announcing substantial orders, often in the hundreds, indicating strong market interest [1]. - Many of the eVTOL orders are intention-based and lack legal binding, which raises questions about their actual market viability [2][3]. Regulatory and Certification Challenges - Most leading eVTOL manufacturers are currently in the process of obtaining airworthiness certification, which is essential before they can move to mass production and commercial delivery [2][4]. - The timeline for achieving these certifications is projected around 2027, which is seen as a critical milestone for the industry [4][10]. Market Demand and Intent Orders - Despite the prevalence of intention orders, there is a genuine market demand for eVTOLs, particularly in tourism and air transport sectors [3][4]. - Intention orders can enhance the financing capabilities of eVTOL manufacturers, even if they do not have immediate legal enforceability [3][4]. Infrastructure Development - The lack of adequate low-altitude infrastructure, including necessary networks for operations, poses a significant barrier to the commercial viability of eVTOLs [7][8]. - Current infrastructure projects are often uncoordinated, leading to potential inefficiencies and resource wastage if not standardized at a national level [7][8]. Future Outlook - The industry anticipates that cargo eVTOL applications will be the first to achieve widespread adoption, with passenger services expected to follow around 2027, and large-scale urban air mobility not likely until after 2030 [10][11]. - Industry leaders emphasize the importance of patience and a systematic approach to development, drawing parallels with the evolution of the electric vehicle market [10][11].