年末避险情绪抬升 公募选股遵循涨价硬逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The concept of price increases based on supply and demand has become a key logic for fund managers to identify potential high-performing stocks, especially during year-end risk aversion periods [1][4]. Group 1: Price Increase as a Stock Selection Logic - Price increases are viewed as a strong indicator of corporate expansion and competitiveness, often leading to excess returns for investors [2][3]. - The price of Moutai liquor has risen from 499 yuan to approximately 1169 yuan from January 2011 to November 2023, significantly benefiting funds heavily invested in it [2]. - Internet companies like Bilibili, Meitu, and Tencent Music have also seen positive investment cycles due to membership price increases, with Meitu's net profit in the first half of this year reaching 467 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.3% [2]. Group 2: Impact of Price Decrease on Investment Decisions - The decline in prices within certain industries can signal dangerous trends for non-leading companies, as it may indicate either a recession or a competitive "elimination round" [3]. - Funds that heavily invested in Nayuki Tea faced significant losses as the industry entered a price-cutting phase, leading to its removal from major fund holdings [3]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Trends - The expectation of price increases has attracted significant capital into specific sectors, particularly during times of heightened risk aversion [4][5]. - Recent data shows that funds focused on resource themes and new energy have performed well, with some achieving returns of up to 31% in the past month, closely linked to price increase news in related industries [4]. - The rapid growth of chemical ETFs, despite previous underperformance, indicates strong investor sensitivity to price increase logic [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategies - Fund managers emphasize the importance of price increase logic in their investment strategies, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, where supply constraints are expected to drive prices higher [7]. - In the technology sector, rising prices for memory chips, driven by increased demand from AI applications, are expected to support strong performance in tech growth stocks [7].