Core Viewpoint - The macro environment is favorable for risk assets in the upcoming 6 to 18 months, supported by three main factors: healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Macro Environment - The global consumer and household balance sheets, particularly in the U.S., are generally healthy, providing a stable foundation for the economy [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy path is becoming clearer, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts in the near future, which is beneficial for risk assets [2] - Fiscal stimulus effects from relevant legislation are expected to continue into next year, providing further economic support [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic view on corporate earnings, particularly driven by the AI wave, which is expected to stabilize cash flows and promote earnings growth [2] - Valuation should be analyzed in conjunction with corporate earnings prospects, rather than in isolation [2] Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy includes a slightly positive outlook on equities, with a focus on diversification and balance to capture opportunities from themes like AI, re-inflation, and domestic demand [1][3] - In the U.S. equity market, the team prefers large-cap stocks with stable cash flows and high asset quality, particularly in the communications and technology sectors reflecting AI themes [3] - Outside the U.S., Japan and emerging markets, especially Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, are highlighted as interesting markets due to fiscal stimulus and improved corporate governance [3][4] Group 4: Focus on China - The multi-asset team has been focusing on the Chinese stock market (A-shares + Hong Kong stocks) since the beginning of the year, viewing it as a reasonable valuation alternative to the U.S. market [4][5] - The long-term outlook for the Chinese stock market is positive, with an investment horizon of 6 to 18 months, rather than a short-term trading opportunity [5] Group 5: Risk Management - The current market valuation is relatively high, leading to increased market volatility, making risk control and volatility management equally important as pursuing returns [5] - Despite high valuations, the low corporate leverage and default rates, along with manageable refinancing pressures, provide a solid foundation for the market [5] - The investment strategy emphasizes diversification across regions and themes to smooth investment returns [5]
摩根资产管理金玥珏——加码中国股市 波动中看好风险资产
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-11-16 18:24