联合国贸发会议报告显示——全球投资仍未走出低谷

Core Insights - Global investment conditions remain sluggish in the first half of 2025, with foreign direct investment (FDI) declining by 3% for the third consecutive year, influenced by escalating global trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and corporate reassessment of supply chain vulnerabilities [1][2] Group 1: Greenfield Investment - Greenfield investment, a key indicator of new capital expenditure and future production capacity, has significantly contracted, with a 17% decrease in global projects. Developed and developing countries saw declines of 20% and 12%, respectively [2] - Manufacturing greenfield projects experienced the most substantial drop, with a 26% reduction, particularly in sectors related to global supply chains such as electronics, machinery, automotive, and textiles [2] - The decline in greenfield investment is attributed to rising U.S. tariff barriers, which have adversely affected manufacturing investments in countries like Vietnam, India, Brazil, and South Africa [2] Group 2: International Project Financing - International project financing, primarily in infrastructure sectors like power, renewable energy, transportation, and communication, has seen a significant decline due to high global interest rates and increased geopolitical risks [3] - Renewable energy project numbers fell by 9%, while other power projects saw a 38% drop in quantity and a 52% decrease in value, indicating a weak performance across various sectors [3] - Domestic financing is replacing international financing, with domestic project financing increasing by 39% in quantity and 29% in value, highlighting a shift as international capital withdraws [3] Group 3: Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions - Cross-border M&A activity has decreased sharply, with total deal value dropping from $448 billion in 2024 to $172 billion in the first half of 2025. The U.S. and U.K. experienced declines of 33% and 59%, respectively [4] - Service and manufacturing sectors saw significant reductions in M&A activity, with service sector deals down by 25% and manufacturing by 12% [4] - The increase in divestitures and withdrawals has led to greater instability in M&A activities in developing countries [4] Group 4: Sustainable Development Goals - Investment related to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals has faced pressure, with project numbers declining by 10% and investment amounts down by 7% in key areas such as renewable energy, infrastructure, and health [4] - The shrinking number of projects and the reduced average size of individual projects further weaken the capital formation capacity of developing countries in critical sustainable development sectors [4] Group 5: Future Investment Trends - The global investment landscape is expected to become more "regionalized" and "friendshored," with investments increasingly flowing between politically friendly nations, shifting from a globalized to a group-based approach [5] - Manufacturing sectors related to supply chains will continue to face challenges, with developed countries likely to repatriate critical manufacturing processes [5] - Digital economy and artificial intelligence are projected to be the only bright spots for global investment growth, driven by strategic emphasis on AI and semiconductor development, as well as intensified technological competition among nations [5]