摩根资产管理金玥珏—— 加码中国股市 波动中看好风险资产

Core Viewpoint - The macro environment is favorable for risk assets in the upcoming 6 to 18 months, supported by three main factors: healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [1][2]. Macro Environment - The overall macro outlook for 2026 remains positive for risk assets, driven by healthy consumer and household balance sheets, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and sustained effects of fiscal stimulus [2]. - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a temporary slowdown in Q4 2023 but is projected to accelerate again in 2024, returning to long-term trend levels, creating a conducive environment for risk assets [2]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The multi-asset team at Morgan Asset Management adopts a diversified approach in stock allocation, favoring large-cap stocks with stable cash flows, particularly in the communications and technology sectors reflecting AI themes [3]. - Outside the U.S., Japan and emerging markets, especially Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities due to fiscal stimulus and improved corporate governance [3][4]. Focus on China - The multi-asset team has been increasingly focusing on the Chinese stock market (A-shares + Hong Kong stocks) since early 2023, viewing it as a reasonable valuation alternative to the U.S. market, with positive macroeconomic and policy developments [4][5]. - The investment perspective on the Chinese stock market is medium to long-term (6 to 18 months), emphasizing that it is part of a broader global or Asia-Pacific stock portfolio rather than a short-term trading opportunity [5]. Risk Management - The current high market valuations may lead to increased volatility, making risk management and volatility control equally important as pursuing returns [5]. - Despite high valuations, the low leverage and default rates of domestic companies, along with manageable refinancing pressures, provide a solid foundation for the market [5].