智通财经网·2025-11-16 22:53Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the current "Bull Market 1.0" is at a high point, with insufficient long-term cost-effectiveness in the technology sector. The technology structural bull market of 2025 is part of this phase, and a potential peak may occur in the spring of 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Phases - The "Bull Market 1.0" is characterized by high resistance to further upward movement, with cyclical trends still in a "running ahead" phase. The conditions for the initiation of "Bull Market 2.0" are not yet complete [2][4]. - The current A-share AI industry chain is compared to previous market phases, indicating a state of "ongoing industry trend with small fluctuations and long-term low cost-effectiveness." Future movements are expected to be divided into "high-level oscillation" and "adjustment" phases [2][3]. Group 2: High-Level Oscillation Phase - In the high-level oscillation phase, it becomes increasingly difficult to earn valuation gains, and new industry catalysts or sustained high growth in performance are less likely to lead to upward breakthroughs. This phase typically lasts at a quarterly level [3][4]. - The adjustment phase is usually triggered by intermediate disturbances in industry trends, which do not signify the end of the structural bull market but may lead to reasonable adjustments [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Short-term opportunities in technology growth are expected to arise from small rebounds, focusing on sectors with new catalysts and significant industry space, particularly in energy storage and storage solutions [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on Alpha logic in both cyclical and technology investments, with a particular interest in sectors like basic chemicals, industrial metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and national defense [5]. Group 4: 2026 Outlook - The spring of 2026 is anticipated to be a potential peak, but it is unlikely to represent the highest point of the entire bull market. The market is expected to face three challenges: long-term low cost-effectiveness in technology, intermediate disturbances in industry trends, and the conditions for "Bull Market 2.0" not being mature yet [4][5]. - The report suggests that the A-share market will continue to see mid-term gains from cyclical improvements, asset allocation shifts towards equities, and China's increasing global influence [5].