美联储，降息预期生变

Group 1 - Global stock markets faced a significant downturn, referred to as "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] - The Middle East stock market was the first major market to open for trading this week, showing varied performance across different countries [1] Group 2 - The Egyptian stock market surged over 2.5%, reaching a record closing high, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar indices fell by 1%, indicating a stark contrast in market performance [2] - The Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares dropping 1.08% to 25.58 Saudi Riyals [3] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stock ETF listed in Saudi Arabia fell by 0.63% to 12.54 Saudi Riyals, while the Egyptian EGX 30 index rose by 2.54% to 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous record [4] Group 3 - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped below 50%, now at 44.4%, with the likelihood of maintaining current rates rising to 55.6% [5] - Market analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will likely remain on hold in December, contrasting with a month ago when the probability of a rate cut was as high as 95% [6] Group 4 - A-shares are expected to be influenced by external factors, with short-term liquidity likely remaining loose, but overseas rate cut expectations declining [7] - Analysts suggest that the market is currently in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI computing and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [7]