12月降息概率跌破50% 美联储降息预期生变！A股将如何演绎？

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has fallen below 50%, leading to a shift in market expectations and impacting global stock markets, including A-shares in China [5][6]. Market Performance - The Egyptian stock market rose over 2.5%, reaching a record closing high, while Saudi and Qatari indices fell by 1%, indicating a divergence in market performance [2][4]. - The Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares declining by 1.08% [3][4]. - The EGX 30 index in Egypt closed up 2.54% at 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous record high [4]. Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is now at 44.4%, with a 55.6% chance of maintaining current rates [5]. - Predictions from Morgan Stanley suggest that the Fed will have access to key economic data before the December meeting, which will influence their decision-making [5][6]. - Recent hawkish statements from Fed officials and concerns over economic data have increased market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment [6]. A-share Market Outlook - Short-term liquidity in the A-share market is expected to remain loose, but inflows may slow due to decreased overseas rate cut expectations [7]. - The market is currently in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [8]. - If new policies are introduced or if there are signs of economic recovery in upcoming data, certain sectors may attract capital inflows [8].